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Albanian emigration in the 1990s
Coordinators: Byron Kotzamanis, E-mail: bkotz@prd.uth.gr
Michela C. Pellicani, E-mail: mc.pellicani@scienzepolitiche.uniba.it
The conflicts and crises that hit the Balkans after the "revolutions" of the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the transition to the post-Communist era generated unprecedented levels of mobility in the region. The population distribution in Albania , whose borders were closed until the late 1980s, was profoundly modified both by massive emigration – mainly to Italy and Greece – and by a major rural exodus.
Questions, among others, to be covered in this research theme:
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Estimation of the extent of Albanian foreign emigration in the 1990s, and of the age-sex structure of emigrants, by comparing the Albanian population enumerated in 2001 with the population expected in 2001 on the basis of the 1989 census figures and of observed fertility and mortality trends from 1989 to 2001 (simulations).
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Analysis of the effects of this emigration on the age-sex structure of the total Albanian population, the total rural population, the total urban population, the population of Tirana.
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Analysis of the effects of international emigration on renewal of the Albanian working-age population (ages 15-64), on age-sex structure and structure by educational level (to verify whether or not emigrants tend to be the most highly educated individuals).
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Analysis of the characteristics of Albanian emigrants, notably in Greece and Italy , on the basis of host country censuses (2001 censuses in Greece and Italy ). The aim here will be to identify particular behaviour patterns among Albanian immigrants (e.g. in terms of geographical settlement) and to assess their degree of integration (e.g. via their economic activity and employment status compared with host country nationals, via their conjugal behaviour or fertility, etc.)
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Analysis of Albanian internal migration and of the effect of rural exodus on age-sex structures of the rural working-age population and on distribution of educational levels.
Population ageing in the Balkans since 1950
Coordinators: Alain Parant , E-mail: parant@ined.fr
Goran Penev, E-mail: penev@sezampro.yu
Population ageing, defined as an increase in the proportion of old people in the
total population, is a very long-standing phenomenon in Europe . It is the consequence of two trends, generally viewed as positive – improved fertility control and longer life expectancy. The process will speed up over the coming decades and affect societies which, in many cases, are ill-prepared for this change.
The research programme presented below focuses on analysing the exact mechanisms of population ageing from the end of the Second World War up to 2050 and the consequences for both communities and individuals. It examines the impact of demographic ageing at national and infra-national levels via two types of question: What are the challenges raised by population ageing? And how should these challenges be addressed?
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Effects of changes in key determinants of demographic renewal – fertility, mortality, personal mobility – on the past and future age structure of Balkan countries, regions and major cities (simulation).
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Impact of demographic ageing on past and future welfare spending (health, pensions).
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Critical analysis of past population policies.
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Adapting to future demographic ageing in the Balkans: prospective study
Renewal and ageing of the working-age population in the Balkans
Coordinators: Jean-Paul Sardon, E-mail: sardon@ined.fr, odeurope@wanadoo.fr
Verica Janeska , E-mail: verica@ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk, verica_inst@yahoo.com
In this project,
the population of interest is the working-age population (ages 15-64) and its components: working-age population (employed + unemployed) and working population.
The aim is to:
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track changes since 1950 (total numbers, by sex, age, educational level, sectors of activity, occupational status, geographical location, etc.)
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analyse the renewal mechanisms: effect of birth rate, mortality and international migration;
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estimate the effects of international migration on the distribution of educational levels and draw conclusions on the possible existence of a "brain drain".
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study school leavers and identify any deterioration in the educational system (increase in number of early school leavers)
Recent demographic trends in Bosnia-Herzegovina
Coordinators: Byron Kotzamanis, E-mail: bkotz@prd.uth.gr
Slavka Popovic, E-mail: popovics@bhas.ba
Bosnia-Herzegovina was seriously affected by the conflict in former Yugoslavia . This conflict caused many deaths and gave rise to massive and diverse population displacements: migration away from the Balkans, migration towards the new nations created by he break-up of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, internal migration (with or without the status of refugee or internally displaced person). These same hostilities had direct repercussions on civil registration (absence of certain data, existence of biased or unreliable data).
After the Dayton agreements, the statistical system of Bosnia-Herzegovina was reorganized. However, though the coverage and quality of civil registration is improving, there is often a severe shortage of data on both internal and external migration. It would appear that the outflow of emigrants is slowing down and that people are starting to return home, though these impressions need to be confirmed.
In the absence of reliable data, there is little certainty about demographic trends in Bosnia-Herzegovina over the period 1991-2005 and, in most publications and international studies – European ones especially – figures are rarely given for
this country.
The fact that no census was organized to cover the period around 2000 makes it even more difficult to analyse the demographic situation in this country. The most recent census dates back to 1991 and, given the upheavals of the last decade, it usefulness is now very limited.
During the last ten years, several sample surveys have been carried out in Bosnia Herzegovina by international organizations working with national institutions. They include the family budgets survey ( 2004-2005), the LSMS survey by the World Bank (2001), the survey on employment (LFS) financed by UNDP (2006), the Panel Survey financed by the DIFD (UK), and the survey of children (UNICEF 2001 and 2006).
While it is not their main purpose to examine the demographic situation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, these surveys include questions which are of use to demographers.
The aim of this project is to:
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Inventory all representative surveys conducted at national level since 1991.
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Analyse the methodologies used.
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Analyse answers to questions that are particularly "useful" to demographers.
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Cross-match data from these surveys with demographic data produced by the statistical office so that total population and age-sex structure can be estimated.
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Produce estimates of the main demographic indicators and their variations over the last decade of the 20th century.
Demographic training and research in the Balkans
Coordinators: Katerina Kostadinova-Daskalovska, E-mail: katerina.daskalovska@gmail.com
Mirjana Devedzic, E-mail: mdevedzic@yahoo.com
The main purpose of this project is to answer the following question: In the Balkans, who does what in the field of demography?
For each of the Balkan countries, the aim is to:
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Make an inventory of the places where demography is taught; of the centres involved in demographic research and population questions; of demographic decision-making structures.
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Make a list of persons concerned by demography and population questions: teachers, researchers, politicians.
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Specify the nature of demographic teaching, the number of students involved.
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Make a list of publications on population questions issued in the last five years, giving the author, title (original title and title in French or English), type of publication (publisher, journal), number of pages.
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Identify population policy measures introduced in the light of research findings.
It is also important to determine which teaching institutions and which demographic research centres outside the Balkans currently host (or could host) Balkan students and researchers, and under what conditions (grants, language, etc.).
On the basis of information collected in the different countries, a regular report will be issued on demographic training and research across the Balkan region.
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